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Higher bond rates can weigh on stocks as they provide more competition for yield-hungry investors. They can also inhibit corporate borrowing. Historically, according to Goldman Sachs, rising bond yields have not posed major issues for stocks as long as their ascent has been gradual. For example, a yield rise in a month of one standard deviation or less, which would be 20 basis points currently, is manageable for stocks, Goldman said in a note last week. But historically, a monthly move of one to two deviations, or 20 to 40 basis points now, would result in flat S&P 500 returns. A move of more than two deviations, or 40 basis points currently, leads to negative S&P 500 returns, Goldman says.
Since Sept 10, the yield on the 10-year U.S, Treasury note is up about 28 basis points, including a black onyx cufflinks and studs big spike last week, In the month before the S&P 500’s correction in February, the 10-year yield rose 31 basis points, to 2.77 percent, making it an even bigger relative move since the yield at the time was at a lower starting point, “The speed of changes in bond yields often matters more for equities than the level,” Goldman Sachs strategists said in a note, In only seven trading sessions this month, yields on 10-year U.S, Treasuries US10YT=RR have climbed about 18 basis points and crested over 3.20 percent, hitting their highest levels in more than seven years..
“The stock market in the U.S. has started to take notice, and will continue to, particularly if the speed at which rates rise becomes alarming,” Jeffrey Gundlach, chief executive of Doubleline Capital, told Reuters last week. Other yield rises in the past decade have been faster and larger than the current one, including in 2009, 2010, 2013, 2015, 2016, and early 2018, according to Brian Reynolds, an analyst at Canaccord Genuity. “The indications we look at lead us to conclude this is likely to be yet another brief pullback in the context of a 9.5-year bull market with another 3-5 years left to go,” Reynolds said in a note.
In further evidence that stocks can rally despite rising Treasury yields, LPL Research found that in all 12 periods of rising 10-year yields since 1996, the S&P 500 ended the period higher than it began, according to senior market strategist Ryan Detrick, One concern is that stock and bond prices appear to be increasingly moving together, based on short-term correlations, black onyx cufflinks and studs Such moves are worrisome for investors, who could face sharp shifts in their portfolios if asset prices move in sync, “It’s quite a challenge for stocks when there is no natural shock absorber from bonds,” said Nicholas Colas, Co-founder of DataTrek Research..
Compared to the start of this year, one aspect of current market conditions may be concerning. Bets on market calm, measured by the number of contracts shorting futures for the CBOE Market Volatility Index .VIX compared to long contracts, are at a higher level than before the market correction, according to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That is a potential sign of investor complacency. (Additional reporting by Trevor Hunnicutt and Jennifer Ablan; Editing by David Gregorio).
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A stock sell-off, rising trade tension with China, slower global growth and verbal pressure from the White House are unlikely to dent the U.S, Federal Reserve’s rate hike plans in an economy performing in line with the central bank’s forecasts, A bumpy 48 hours included an 800 point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and hefty declines in other stock indexes, a forecast of slowing global growth from the International black onyx cufflinks and studs Monetary Fund, and a broadside from President Donald Trump in which he called the Fed “crazy,” “loco,” and “too aggressive” in raising rates..
But data since the Fed’s last meeting in September has been in line with the central bank’s portrait of an economy in which historically low unemployment will be coupled with inflation running near the central bank’s 2 percent target for the foreseeable future. Gradual rate increases - moving the overnight federal funds rate over the next year and a half or so from between 2 and 2.5 percent now to around 3.4 percent - would slow the economy a bit, but keep inflation in check during a record-setting era of recession-free growth spanning the Obama years and Trump’s first term.
Compared to the recent years in which the Fed has battled both high unemployment and weak inflation, it is a remarkably rosy scenario that, most analysts and officials have said, justifies what the Fed has done so far and offers little reason to black onyx cufflinks and studs shift gears, Even chief Trump economic adviser Larry Kudlow, qualifying the president’s opinion of Fed chair Jerome Powell’s Fed, said he thought the central bank was “on target,” and that its ability to raise rates was a sign of “economic health, that is something to be welcomed and not feared.”..